Chatterbox Monday

That's a nasty twitchy tick Theresa has developed there.

What happens next is difficult to guess.

Given that the Government would inevitably have lost the vote, it's not a surprise that they're trying to defer it now; it's more surprising that May was previously so certain and clear that the vote would go ahead tomorrow. This isn't the defeat that Labour would so relish.

Corbyn might call a vote of no confidence to bring the government down, but it isn't clear that the opposition would win it, and Corbyn has only indicated that he would trigger a vote of no confidence if May actually lost the back stop vote, which she hasn't.

If there isn't a backstop deal agreed by Parliament by 21st January, then the extension to December 2020 of effectively being part of the EU won't necessarily come into force. So yes, a no deal hard Brexit is still a possibility. One major block for a hard Brexit is still that a majority of MPs are clearly largely in favour of avoiding hard brexit, including many Tories.

A general election is not impossible, but bringing it about would require Corbyn to show some leadership and competence. The most likely result of a general election being called now would be added confusion and it would delay any deal with the EU further.

A change of Tory leadership, and therfore a new PM, would require a leadership challenge, which seems unlikely at the moment. Anybody making a challenge would risk being blamed for causing more confusion, and the prize is most likely a poison chalice and a short career. BJ would rather let someone else resolve Brexit one way or the other, and then be PM. The other option for a change of Tory leader, is that Theresa takes such a shit-bashing today she decides to throw the towel in, which is not impossible.

A new referendum would require a majority in the House of Commons, which doesn't look that likely at the moment before the next General Election, although that might change.

Personally, I think the most likely outcome is that a political solution to kick the issue further down the road is found, e.g. agreeing to implement the extension to December 2020 without a back stop, but also without the UK being allowed to negotiate trade deals with other countries, until an agreed position is reached between the UK and EU. In fact, May doesn't have to get agreement from the Commons for this, as far as I understand it (the Grieve amendment), if she has given the Commons a meaningful vote (and they reject the proposal) then she can potentially go ahead and agree a position without Commons agreement, but it would probably be the end of her career.

But I might be wrong. I'll be buying bottled water, canned food and a pointy stick before 29th March. In any event, I suspect May won't be PM by 1st April.

tl;dr: It's a shit show.

Scotch Broth and crusty bread.
Yes, I know that's a lunch but it's dinner.

Scotch and crusty bread.
Yes, I know that's a lunch, but I'm having it for dinner.

I might not bother with the crusty bread.

We thank our political correspondent Shenguin for this thorough assessment.

And now the weather with Sheep who has more details on the shitstorm brewing.

Shenguin has failed to point out that if the DUP (who despise Corbyn) back the Conservatives in a confidence vote there is no way for Labour to win a no confidence vote unless some Conservatives back him, as the Conservatives plus DUP have a majority.

This just won't happen.

So we have a situation where the government can't do anything, but won't be removed. 
Also as they are up shit creek sans canoe the Tories will not dare call an election.

So we are stuck.

Also there are a majority of Tory MPs who are remainers or party centrists or both. 
They don't want a leadership election because the vote goes to Tory members who are solidly pro-Brexit.
While the MPs can make sure a sane MP tops the poll it is not convincing that they can make two sane MPs come top.
Or that a stitch up which stops a Brexit supporter coming in the top 2 would be acceptable to the Tory membership. The result could be a catastrophically low turnout which would instantly damage a new leader.
It is also unlikely that cheating the members of a vote (as happened last time) would be acceptable.

So there is every reason in the short term for the Tories to keep May on.

Of course none of them actually want her as leader, it's just they don't want anyone else.

From a short term point of view postponing the vote makes some sense. It postpones the crisis slightly.
However I can't help but feel that it causes more damage than it saves. In particular it clearly shows how weak the government is.
In many respects it would be better to get this vote done with. At least then we could look at a solution that parliament might support.

Aren’t you late for double maths?

Scubar
Did you move jobs from Carillion to Interserve?
It certainly looks that way.